DfE7: Futures Thinking

The future isn't something we can simply predict. But it’s something we can explore, question, and design for.

For the last and final theme of this 8-part series, here are six futures thinking models worth knowing:

1. Futures Cone

Maps different ways the future could unfold: possible, probable, and preferable futures. It helps separate what could happen from what we expect to happen, and what we actually want to happen.

2. Backcasting

Instead of starting from today and forecasting forward, start with a desired future and work backwards. Identify the milestones, decisions, and actions needed to move from the future you want to the present.

3. Causal Layered Analysis

Looks beneath surface-level events to uncover deeper layers of a system: litany (observational), system, worldview, and myths/metaphors. It helps challenge the assumptions that shape how we imagine the future.

4. Theory of Change

Maps how interventions can lead to outcomes and ultimately create change. It connects the actions we take today with the longer-term narratives and impact we hope to create, while making assumptions and indicators explicit.

5. Three Horizons

Explores three time horizons simultaneously: business-as-usual, emerging possibilities, and completely new futures. Rather than simply planning for the next stage, it helps organizations balance what needs to be maintained, developed, and fundamentally changed.

6. Futures Circles

Starts with a central change and maps its first- and second-order consequences. It helps expand our thinking beyond the immediate effects of a decision to consider the wider ripple effects it might create.

So, futures thinking isn't about predicting the future.

It's about asking:

What futures are possible? Which ones are probable?

And which ones do we want to make more likely?

The more futures we can imagine, the more choices we have in the present.